Unintended Consequences – Nothing New Here

          In my 2011 book “Economic Consequences,” I examined the notion of unintended consequences.  I offered several examples of government actions that may have been taken with good intentions (we can debate that another time) but ended up causing unpleasant, unintended consequences.           A couple examples are the Americans with Disabilities Act and the Endangered…

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Stagflation and the Fiat Currency End Game

          Over the past couple of weeks, we have been discussing the possible consequences of the recent debt ceiling suspension deal.  This week, I want to offer you a perspective put forth by Matthew Piepenburg.  While I’ll be sharing some of the piece with you, I would encourage you to read the entire commentary – it…

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Two Outcomes – A Reminder

          In the June issue of the “You May Not Know Report,” a written newsletter delivered monthly to clients of our firm, I outline the Fed’s two policy options moving ahead.           Both options will produce a difficult economic and investing outcome for retirees and aspiring retirees.  And, both options require an investor prepare for…

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Possible Economic Outcomes

          From where I sit, it seems that stagflation is the most likely economic outcome near term.           Stagflation is defined as inflation combined with economic contraction.           The official inflation rate is 8.5%, but any long-term reader of “Portfolio Watch” knows this official number is highly manipulated.  The actual inflation rate, absent favorable adjustments…

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Are Currency Changes Imminent? – Part 2

          The big news in financial markets last week was the big decline in US Treasuries.  Not surprising given the news I discussed last week; Russia has now loosely tied its currency, the Ruble, to gold and required any country that Russia deems to be unfriendly to use Rubles or gold when trading with Russia.…

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Are We on the Verge of a Crack-Up Boom?

         Stocks rallied and gold fell last week.  At this point, I don’t view these developments as trend-changing, rather as counter-trend rallies.  The Dow to Gold ratio continued to fall last week.  As currency devaluation continues, this is an indicator that becomes more meaningful in my view.           At its last meeting, the Federal Reserve…

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What is Real and Where are We Heading?

                    While I don’t typically publish the databox above in my blog each week, I am including it this week for reference.           The Dow to Gold ratio continued to fall last week.  As currency devaluation continues, this is an indicator that becomes more meaningful in my view.           If you are not familiar…

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The Fed, the Economy and the Markets

          The double top theory for stocks that I called at the end of 2021 and have been discussing this month still looks intact despite a bit of a rally in stocks last week.           There was a lot of volatility in stock markets last week and a week end rally propelled stocks into positive…

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The Recent Stock Bull Market – Real or Nominal?

          The double top theory for stocks that I suggested at the end of 2021, is looking like the right call at this point.           Stocks suffered their worst week since March of 2020 last week despite a 4-day trading week.            As I have been suggesting here each week, when stock gains are largely…

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Inflation and Deflation Perspectives

          Despite last week’s rally in stocks, the highs of mid-November remain the market’s high point.  As I have been noting, my long-term, trend-following indicators remain negative.           This past week, I began to read the most recent book by James Turk, a past guest on my radio program.  Mr. Turk’s book is titled, “Money…

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