Posts Tagged ‘Jerome Powell’
Stagflation and the Fiat Currency End Game
Over the past couple of weeks, we have been discussing the possible consequences of the recent debt ceiling suspension deal. This week, I want to offer you a perspective put forth by Matthew Piepenburg. While I’ll be sharing some of the piece with you, I would encourage you to read the entire commentary – it…
Read MoreTwo Outcomes – A Reminder
In the June issue of the “You May Not Know Report,” a written newsletter delivered monthly to clients of our firm, I outline the Fed’s two policy options moving ahead. Both options will produce a difficult economic and investing outcome for retirees and aspiring retirees. And, both options require an investor prepare for…
Read MoreIs the Fed About to Reverse Course?
The Fed, the central bank of the United States, after increasing interest rates by .25% after its last meeting, issued a statement that was a bit different than other recent statements after the Fed decided to increase interest rates. Here is a comment by Fed Chair Jerome Powell pointing out the differences between the…
Read MoreLong-Term Stock Forecast
While the overall stock market trend remains down, stocks did begin to show some signs of life last week, technically speaking. As the chart below, a weekly chart of an exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500, illustrates, the longer-term downtrend line in place since the beginning of calendar year 2022 may have been broken…
Read MoreThe Fed, the Economy and the Markets
The double top theory for stocks that I called at the end of 2021 and have been discussing this month still looks intact despite a bit of a rally in stocks last week. There was a lot of volatility in stock markets last week and a week end rally propelled stocks into positive…
Read MoreCorruption at the Fed?
Stocks, by my analysis, weakened even more last week. The first four trading days of the week were negative followed by a nice rally on Friday. Despite the rally, technicals in the stock market are breaking down by my measure. 4 of the 11 sectors that comprise the S&P 500 turned negative over the…
Read MoreThe Political Realities of the Taper
This past week, after the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming symposium, Fed Chair, Jerome Powell commented on Fed policy. It was widely anticipated that the Fed Chair would discuss the ‘taper’, or the Fed’s plan to slow the rate at which currency is being created. The Fed Chair, in many respects, disappointed. This is…
Read MoreGreenspan the Gold Bug?
Markets were once again quiet last week. Emerging market stocks continue to show weakness and the bond markets may be beginning to show signs of life. Last week, I shared a chart of the “Buffet Indicator” a stock valuation tool that was named after Warren Buffet after he revealed in an interview it was his…
Read MoreInflation, Deflation and Number Games
By my technical measure, stocks remain in an uptrend although it’s difficult to justify current valuations from a fundamental perspective. Gold and silver, as I noted last week are in downtrends although the fundamentals are still very bullish for precious metals. One reason I am bullish on precious metals moving ahead is the expansion of…
Read MoreStocks, Metals and the Fed’s ‘New’ Policy
While there is no fundamental justification for it, stocks rallied again last week and rallied strongly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 2.59% higher while the S&P 500 rose more than 3%. Stock valuations of the most popular stocks are literally, nearly off the charts. Call me old-fashioned, but buying stocks with a price to…
Read More