More Inflation Followed by Deflation

          Last week, here in “Portfolio Watch,” I provided evidence that we are in the ‘inflation followed by deflation cycle’ that I forecast in my 2011 book “Economic Consequences.”  At this point in time, there is evidence of both.           First, events this past week point to the Federal Reserve will have to reverse course…

Read More

Is the U.S. Economy Ready to Break?

         As I have been noting, stocks appear to be in the early stages of an Elliott Wave theory ‘wave three’ down. Here is an updated chart. (For an explanation of an Elliott Wave three down, visit www.RetirementLifestyleAdvocates.com and see the “Portfolio Watch” newsletter dated September 25, 2023.)          A large…

Read More

Inflation, the American Consumer and Recession

          There are signs that the economy is beginning to slouch toward recession.           This week, we’ll look at a few of those signs and some events that will have at least some effect on the US economy.           Let’s begin with the fact that inflation got hot again in August.  I have been repeatedly…

Read More

Are Air BNB’s Indicating a Real Estate Crash?

          I have long held that the current investing environment has been artificial for more than the last decade.  Higher stock and real estate prices have been fueled by currency creation and debt accumulation.           It now seems we may be close to the reversal I have been forecasting.  While I fully expect the Federal…

Read More

The Coming Storm in Real Estate

Did you hear about the latest lunacy out of Washington?           Mark my words; it will create yet another headwind for a real estate market that is beginning to flounder without this change.           Seems that homebuyers with good credit and larger down payments will now pay more in mortgage origination fees than poorly qualified,…

Read More

Stagflation Imminent?

          Last week, I discussed the inevitable outcome of government overspending and central bank overprinting.           This outcome will be as ugly as it will be predictable in my view.           Eventually, inflation will give way to an ugly deflationary environment.  In the meantime, we will probably see stagflation – rising consumer prices and falling…

Read More

Stock, Retail and Housing Update

          Despite the recent rally in stocks, when analyzing longer-term price charts, it is my view that stocks remain in a downtrend at this point in time.           As I have often stated in this publication, it is rare that any market moves straight up or straight down.  Instead, a downtrend is typically characterized by…

Read More

About Stocks and Bonds

          The stock market highs of November have not yet been taken out and my long-term trend-following indicators continue to become more bearish.  At this point, a “Santa” rally looks less likely especially given the Fed’s recent statements about accelerating the taper or slowing the rate of currency creation.           As the longer-term readers of…

Read More