Two Outcomes – A Reminder

          In the June issue of the “You May Not Know Report,” a written newsletter delivered monthly to clients of our firm, I outline the Fed’s two policy options moving ahead.           Both options will produce a difficult economic and investing outcome for retirees and aspiring retirees.  And, both options require an investor prepare for…

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Depression Parallels?

Depression parallels?           Not a comfortable topic to discuss, to be sure.  But as my now oft-quoted history professor used to say, “those who don’t study history are doomed to repeat it.”           The older I get and the more experience I acquire, the smarter my history professor becomes.           Which brings me to this…

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Happy New Year – New Taxes Await

Happy New Year!  And, with the new year comes higher taxes, thanks to the Washington politicians.           While I fully expect another difficult year for the economy and investing, the consumer spending-dependent US economy will have to withstand higher taxes in addition to record debt levels and inflation.           This from “Zero Hedge” (Source:  https://www.zerohedge.com/political/heres-list-biden-tax-hikes-which-take-effect-jan-1):…

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Metals, Currency and Inflation

          Precious metals, stocks, and bonds all rallied last week.           Interestingly, the rally in metals occurred after the inflation report came in cooler than expected.  This from “Zero Hedge” (Source:  https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/core-cpi-inches-lower-40-year-highs-real-wages-tumble-19th-straight-month) The headline CPI printed far cooler than expected at +7.7% YoY (vs 7.9% exp) and down from the +8.2% in Sept. That is the lowest…

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The Political Realities of the Taper

This past week, after the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming symposium, Fed Chair, Jerome Powell commented on Fed policy.  It was widely anticipated that the Fed Chair would discuss the ‘taper’, or the Fed’s plan to slow the rate at which currency is being created.           The Fed Chair, in many respects, disappointed.  This is…

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Money Printing, Politics and an Imaginary Suit

This week, a couple of observations. One, food inflation rose for the seventh consecutive month as I predicted we would continue to see.  Dairy products and vegetable oils rose most.  This from “Zero Hedge” (Source:  https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/global-food-prices-rise-seventh-consecutive-month) (emphasis added): The Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Price Index rose for a seventh consecutive month in December, led by dairy…

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Higher Education and Hyperinflation

In this week’s update, I’ll look at a couple of topics that I’ve examined in previously.           I’ll begin with my forecast from earlier this year that at least 1/3rd of colleges and universities would close within five years.  While COVID has impacted enrollment at institutions of higher learning, problems existed in the higher education…

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The Exodus Continues

The exodus from major cities continues. To follow up on one of the trends that we have discussed in detail over the past couple of months, the migration from the city to the country is intensifying. “The New York Times” published two separate stories on Monday highlighting how moving companies are actually turning away customers…

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